To find a more appropriate distribution for traffic incident dura

To find a more appropriate distribution for traffic incident duration, Ghosh et al. [27] used generalized F distribution, which includes a number of the most commonly used distributions in parametric hazard-based Tyrphostin AG-1478 EGFR Inhibitors models, to assess the effects of certain factors on incident clearance times. The results showed that generalized F distribution

provided the best fit for the incident clearance time data used in that study. The chi-square results of another study showed that both the Weibull and log-normal stochastic models do not adequately describe the clearance time values for all incidents [9]. The histogram of incident clearance times with various characteristics showed different shapes. Commonly used distributions impose restrictions on the shape of the hazard function, and the distribution of traffic incident duration time is diverse. For example, the distribution of traffic incident duration times may be neither Weibull nor log-logistic; that is, simpler parametric models may not be flexible enough to adequately represent the hazard function and capture the underlying shape of the data. Therefore, more flexible models [36] are needed to greatly extend the range of hazard distributions that can be estimated [37]. In the past decade,

various more flexible distributions [36, 38, 39] have been used in hazard-based models. The factors that significantly affect incident duration time vary with the dataset and the various available variables. The various factors identified in previous studies generally included the following: temporal factors (e.g., time of day, day of week, and peak hour versus nonpeak hour), incident characteristics (e.g., different collision types, involving trucks, buses, taxis, or none of these), environmental conditions (e.g., rainfall, fog), roadway geometry, traffic flow conditions (e.g., congestion versus noncongestion), and operational factors. Using a dataset consisting of 2851 traffic incident records obtained from the 3rd Ring expressway mainline in Beijing, this study GSK-3 assesses the effects of various distributions

on a hazard-based model used to analyze incident duration time on the basis of the selected measure of fit. After the performances of various models are compared, the best model is used to investigate the relationship between various factors and traffic incident duration time as well as to predict traffic incident duration time. 3. Flexible Parametric Model When a traffic incident occurs, travelers and traffic operators are concerned over the length of time between the reporting and clearance of the incident, as well as the probability that the incident will end in the next time period t + Δt, given that it has lasted for a specific time t. Probabilities that change over time are ideally suited for hazard-based analysis [40].

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